SUPER EL NIÑO

NEWS: Potential Super El Niño later this year, which could push global temperatures to record heights in 2027

El Niño

• Warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillationà marked by abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Typically occurs every 3–7 years and significantly affects global weather patterns.

Formation

• Trade winds push warm water toward Asia, allowing cold water upwelling near South America.
• During El Niño, these winds weaken or reverse.
• Warm water moves eastward (via Kelvin waves), deepening the thermocline.
• This suppresses upwelling and warms the atmosphere, altering jet streams and rainfall.

Impact

• Causes droughts in regions like India and Australia
• Leads to heavy rainfall in parts of the Americas
• Disrupts agriculture, fisheries, and global climate system

Super El Niño

• Extremely intense phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, defined by sea surface temperature anomalies of ≥ 2°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
• Rare and significantly amplify global climate disruptions.

Causes/Factor

• Subsurface heat buildup that intensifies surface warming
• Westerly wind bursts pushing warm water eastward
• Global warming, raising baseline ocean temperatures and strengthening events

Global Impacts

• Record-breaking global temperatures
• Altered jet streams affecting rainfall patterns
• Suppressed Atlantic hurricanes but increased Pacific activity
• Floods in regions like Peru; droughts in Africa

Impact on India

• Weak monsoon leading to drought conditions
• Agricultural losses (especially Kharif crops)
• Increased heatwaves and stress on water and energy resources
• Economic losses in climate-sensitive sectors