Published on: November 13, 2025

INDIA’S INCREASING VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONES

INDIA’S INCREASING VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONES

Introduction

Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive natural disasters affecting India. The recent Cyclone Montha (2025) once again exposed India’s growing vulnerability, causing widespread damage across Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and other states. As climate change intensifies oceanic and atmospheric processes, India faces heightened risks despite improved forecasting and preparedness mechanisms.

Understanding Tropical Cyclones

Definition:
A tropical cyclone is an intense circular storm that originates over warm tropical oceans, characterized by strong winds and heavy rains revolving around a low-pressure centre.

Key Conditions for Formation:

  • Sea Surface Temperature (SST) above 27°C to a depth of 60–70 m.

  • Abundant moisture and unstable air in the lower atmosphere.

  • Coriolis force to initiate and sustain rotation (effective between 5°–20° latitudes).

  • Pre-existing low-pressure system and upper-level divergence aiding convection.

Global Nomenclature:

  • Hurricanes (Atlantic), Typhoons (Pacific), Willy-willies (Australia), and Cyclones (Indian Ocean).

Why the Indian Subcontinent Experiences Frequent Tropical Cyclones

Geographical Factors:

  • India is flanked by the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea, both warm water bodies within tropical latitudes.

  • The BoB, due to higher sea temperatures and low salinity, is more conducive to cyclogenesis.

  • The convergence of monsoonal winds, inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and warm currents further enhance instability.

Seasonal Occurrence:

  • Pre-monsoon (April–June) and post-monsoon (October–December) are the most active periods.

  • Around 6–7% of global cyclones originate in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) annually.

Factors Increasing India’s Vulnerability

A. Geographical and Demographic Factors

  • 7,500 km long coastline, with 13 coastal states/UTs.

  • High population density in coastal regions, especially in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.

  • Flat and low-lying coastal terrain facilitates deep inland penetration of storm surges.

  • Shallow continental shelf intensifies storm surge heights.

B. Economic and Infrastructural Exposure

  • Coastal states host critical infrastructure—ports, refineries, power plants, and agriculture-dependent livelihoods.

  • Cyclones destroy crops, housing, power lines, and roads, leading to billions in losses.

C. Environmental and Climatic Factors

  • Climate Change:

    • Rising sea surface temperatures (SST) — about 1.2–1.4°C increase in the Arabian Sea in four decades.

    • Fosters rapid intensification of cyclones, reducing response time.

  • Sea-Level Rise:

    • Increases storm surge inundation and coastal erosion.

  • Changing Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions:

    • Alteration in monsoon patterns and cyclone tracks due to ENSO, IOD, and warming trends.

Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Amplifying the Threat

  • Higher SSTs → more latent heat → stronger cyclones.

  • Increased moisture content → heavier rainfall during landfall.

  • Sea-level rise → deeper storm surges, threatening inland areas.

  • Frequent “rapid intensification” events, as seen in Cyclone Tauktae and Yaas, challenge early warning systems.

  • Coastal cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Visakhapatnam face compounded risks from urban flooding and saline intrusion.

Improved Forecasting and Preparedness

A. Institutional Framework

  • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) – established in 2005.

  • Odisha State Disaster Management Authority (OSDMA) – pioneer since 1999 post-Super Cyclone.

  • National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) – initiated in 2011 to strengthen infrastructure and early warning.

B. Technological Advancements

  • Improved IMD forecasting models and satellite data assimilation enhance landfall predictions.

  • Early Warning Dissemination System (EWDS) and Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) improve ground response.

C. Success Indicators

  • Death tolls from recent cyclones (e.g., Fani, Amphan, Tauktae) significantly lower than past disasters like the 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone (10,000 deaths).

  • However, economic damages remain high, showing the need for resilience-based rather than evacuation-based approaches.

The Way Forward: Building a Resilient Coastal India

  • Shift from relief to resilience: focus on long-term adaptation.

  • Invest in Cyclone Risk Mitigation Infrastructure (CRMI)—multipurpose shelters, saline embankments, underground cabling.

  • Community capacity-building to act as first responders.

  • Integrated coastal zone management and nature-based solutions like mangrove restoration.

  • Enhanced regional cooperation for data sharing across Bay of Bengal nations.

Conclusion

India’s vulnerability to tropical cyclones is the outcome of a complex interaction between geography, demography, and climate dynamics. While technological advancements have reduced mortality, climate change and sea-level rise continue to amplify economic and ecological risks. Sustainable coastal development and community resilience are essential to secure India’s future against intensifying tropical storms.

MAINS QUESTIONS

  • Explain the geographical and meteorological factors responsible for frequent tropical cyclones along India’s eastern coast.

  •  Critically analyse how climate change and sea-level rise have altered India’s cyclone patterns and vulnerability.